Coronavirus Model Used by White House Changed to Reflect Decrease in Projected Fatalities

A coronavirus projection used by the White House has dramatically reduced its estimates, cutting the death forecast by 12 percent.

A coronavirus projection used by the White House to warn that the country could face between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths in a “best case scenario” has dramatically reduced its estimates, cutting the number of hospital beds needed by 58 percent and the death forecast by 12 percent.

The IHME model, produced by the University of Washington, updated its numbers overnight to show that projected deaths decreased from 93,531 to 81,766, and the projected total bed shortage fell from 87,674 to 36,654, after projected hospital beds fell 45 percent from 262,000 to 141,000 and ICU beds decreased 26 percent from almost 39,700 to 29,200. While the model remained unchanged in estimating a peak of April 15, it also moved forward its projected date of under 200 daily deaths from June 3 to May 18.


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